中美关系回顾与展望

作者 Ingrid （Yingjie） Gao 翻译 高天明 December 31， 2017

【此文对于我们了解和把握中美关系发展趋势非常有帮助，对于我们发展以旅游为特色的民间外交也非常有帮助。2019年是中美建交四十周年，2018年是决定中美关系发展走向的关键一年…..   -- 编译   高天明留言摘要】

中美关系是指中华人民共和国与美利坚合众国之间的双边关系。在过去的数十年里，中美关系对推动或改变当今世界的历史进程起到了决定性的作用。每当中美关系趋缓向好，和平与繁荣就会光顾这两个国家，乃至全世界。此文旨在通过分析发生在不同历史阶段的关键事件来探讨到底是什么因素促使中美关系趋缓向好或紧张恶化。

在“封锁遏制阶段”（1949年-1969年），中美两国因受地缘政治和意识形态影响长期处于敌对和敌视状态。上世纪五十年代的朝鲜战争曾使两国关系降到了冰点。不过，上世纪六十年代来自苏联的共同威胁又把两国关系拉近，并进而迈入“和解改善阶段”（1970年-1988年）。自从1972年尼克松访华并签署上海联合公报以后，两国关系又更上一层楼，并在1979年达到顶峰，即：两国正式建交。

遗憾的是，两国关系在1989年又降到了冰点，并进入了“紧张恶化阶段”（1989-2000）。造成紧张恶化的主要原因是相互猜疑和误会。1989年的“天安门事件”和1999年的轰炸中国驻贝尔格莱德大使馆事件就是两个典型的案例。9-11恐怖袭击之后，中美两国又进入了“握手言和”阶段，并视伊斯兰恐怖分子为共同敌人。此间，中美两国政府开展的“首脑外交”有效地化解了双方的争议或争执。

然而，伴随着2017年“伊斯兰国（ISIS）”的土崩瓦解，中美两国正在进入“竞合并存阶段”，即：竞争与合作将体现在两国关系的方方面面。特朗普总统今年十一月份对北京富有成效的访问证明：如果双方能本着求同存异的务实态度来发展两国关系，就一定能获得互惠互利的结果。正如特朗普在最近公布的《国家安全战略》一文中所言“竞争并不意味着敌对，也不会必然导致冲突”。

以上分析说明：自1949年至今，中美关系的发展相当崎岖不平。每当出现相互猜疑，两国关系就会紧张恶化；每当出现共同利益，两国关系就会和解改善。因此，中美关系的关键是不断地缩小相互猜疑和不断地放大共同利益。正如习近平主席所言：“中美关系正处在新的历史起点上。中方愿同美方一道，相互尊重、互利互惠，聚焦合作、管控分歧，给两国人民带来更多获得感，给地区及世界人民带来更多获得感。”

What Drive the Sino-American Relationship Closer or Otherwise?

Ingrid （Yingjie） Gao

The Sino-American relationship refers to the bilateral relationship between the People’s Republic of China and the United States of America. Over the past decades, the Sino-American relationship has played a pivotal role in shaping or changing the historical development of the contemporary world. Whenever the relationship gets closer, peace and prosperity would prevail in both countries, and even around the world. This paper is, therefore, intended to study what exactly drive the Sino-American relationship closer or otherwise by analyzing the critical events happened in each historical period.

In the Containment Period from 1949 to 1969, the two countries suffered a lot from hostility and animosity due to geopolitical and ideological reasons. The Korean War brought the relationship to a freezing point in the 1950s. However, the common threat from the Soviet Union in the 1960’s finally brought them together and ushered in the Rapprochement Period from 1970 to 1988. They started moving closer to one another after President Nixon’s China visit and the signing of Shanghai Communiqués in 1972. The relationship reached its peak after the two established diplomatic relations in 1979.

Unfortunately, the bilateral relationship was brought to another freezing point in 1989, and witnessed the Deterioration Period from 1989 to 2000. It was mainly caused by mistrust or misunderstanding. The June Fourth Incident in 1989 and the Bombing of the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade in 1999 are just a few examples. As a result of the 9/11 Attacks, the two countries entered the Reconciliation Period from 2001to 2016, and made the Islamic Terrorists the common enemy of all. The summit diplomacy practiced by both countries turned out to be quite successful in resolving disputes in this period.

With the final collapse of ISIS in 2017, however, the two countries are now being driven to the Coopetition Period, which is characterized with cooperative competitions in every aspect of the bilateral relations. President Trump’s fruitful visit to Beijing last November proves that mutually beneficial results can be achieved if both sides can take a more pragmatic approach of seeking common interests in spite of the existing differences. According to Trump’s newly released National Security Strategy, “Competition does not always mean hostility, nor does it inevitably lead to conflict.”

As is evident from the above analysis, the Sino-American relationship has gone through quite “a bumpy ride” from 1949 to present days. Whenever there is mistrust, the relationship would get deteriorated; whenever there is a common interest, the relationship would get improved. The key is to keep minimizing mistrust and maximizing common interests. In President Xi Jinping’s view, “The China-U.S. relationship now stands at a new starting point. China is ready to work with the U.S. to enhance cooperation and properly manage differences in a spirit of mutual respect and mutual benefit.”

【The above text is an excerpt of a term paper I wrote for my Federal Government (Honors) Class at OU.】